John Chayka has changed the Maple Leafs’ blue line in a pretty meaningful way already.

The Leafs GM has given a max-term contract to Darren Raddysh, traded for 24-year-old Emil Andrae, and now dealt away Brandon Carlo.

A Morgan Rielly trade may eventually follow.

There’s a chance, small as it may be, for Chayka to blow all of that activity out of the water — if he can somehow pull off a trade for Zach Werenski, the reigning Norris Trophy winner who appears ready for a move out of Columbus.

As predicted, Gavin McKenna goes No. 1

The Athletic Hockey Show

The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun noted in his latest “Rumblings” column that the Leafs are the one Canadian team that Werenski, an American with a full no-movement clause, “might consider” in a trade.

Do the Leafs have enough, though, for the Blue Jackets to consider a deal?

I wondered about Werenski as a home run trade possibility for the Leafs back in May, with any and all trade conversations presumably starting with Matthew Knies.

Knies could be attractive as the centerpiece of a deal for Werenski. He’s a soon-to-be 24-year-old American power winger who has shown a unique blend of offence, energy and physicality. Crucially, he is signed for another five seasons at a $7.75 million cap hit that should age very nicely.

But Knies alone isn’t getting this done. Not for Werenski, who had 81 points last season en route to the Norris, and who still has another two years remaining on his contract at a cap hit of $9.5 million.

So what else would the Leafs have to include? What else could they include?

The Blue Jackets might look to the Canucks’ return on Quinn Hughes, another top-three defenceman in the NHL, for inspiration.

For Hughes, who had only a year and a half left on his contract when he was dealt in December, the Minnesota Wild gave up Zeev Buium, a promising 20-year-old defenceman, Marco Rossi, a young-ish centre, Liam Ohgren, a young forward, and a pick in Friday’s first round of the draft.

Knies is more accomplished, at the moment, than anyone in that deal and he’s under contract until 2031. Plus, he obviously still has room to grow. But much more is going to be needed in a deal like this.

The Leafs could start by adding the first-round pick in next year’s draft that they got back from Colorado for Nic Roy. Another one of their top young players — Easton Cowan or Ben Danford — would likely need to be included too. Do the Blue Jackets insist on both? And if so, is that too much for the Leafs: Knies, Cowan, Danford and a 2027 first-round pick? In other words, the organization’s two best young forwards outside of Gavin McKenna, their top prospect on defence, and a first that figures to fall late in the 2027 first round.

It feels like a lot — and it might not be enough all the same. (I wondered in June who would say no to swap of Werenski for the No. 1 pick. But that ship has presumably sailed.)

Could the Leafs hold onto Cowan, somehow? Drop Nick Robertson into his place instead, another winger who can give the Blue Jackets a bit of scoring right away? Might the Leafs send back one of their own NHL defencemen (Rielly? Oliver Ekman-Larsson? Jake McCabe?) in the deal?

Beyond Werenski’s desire to come to Toronto, the likelihood of a deal inevitably depends on how highly the Blue Jackets value Knies, and whether they believe they could bring back someone better as the centrepiece in a Werenski trade.

They should absolutely shoot higher.

From the Leafs’ side of things, including Knies in a deal for Werenski is a no-brainer — even with the risk that Werenski bolts sooner than later.

Knies is a full five years younger than Werenski, who will be 29 in July. And he’s got those five years left on his contract compared to the two left on Werenski’s deal.

There’s also still a chance that he becomes a full-blown star.

But to get back a player who already is a full-blown star, at a position of need, makes this pretty easy for the Leafs.

This franchise has, arguably, never had a player like Werenski — an elite do-it-all No. 1 defenceman who contends for (and wins) Norris trophies.

Not one Leaf, in fact, has ever won the Norris.

The late great Börje Salming finished in the top-five seven times, including twice as the runner-up.

Acquire Werenski somehow and the Leafs’ blue line, a huge weakness last season, would become a huge strength.

New Leafs coach Jim Hiller could cobble together a robust top four that maybe looks something like this:

Werenski – Tanev
McCabe – Raddysh

Or:

Werenski – Raddysh
McCabe – Tanev

Trade Rielly and the third pair could consist of Andrae and Ekman-Larsson.

The Leafs could use Werenski as the quarterback of one power-play unit and Raddysh as the point man of another. They could even pair them both together on a stacked first group with Auston Matthews, William Nylander and McKenna.

What better way to keep Matthews happy than to bring in Werenski? He would become, by far, the best defenceman that Matthews has played with in the NHL, never mind a fellow American and Olympic teammate and someone who happens to share the same agent, Judd Moldaver.

Werenski would also give the Leafs a substantially better chance to win, which is all that matters to Matthews in the end.

Matthews and Werenski won gold together for Team USA at the 2026 Olympics. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

The risk with a deal like this would not be nothing. Like Matthews, Werenski has only two years remaining on his contract, and like Matthews, this is probably more like a “one year and we’ll see” kind of thing.

The Leafs could obviously decide to play things out, hope that they get a two-year window with both Matthews and Werenski at the helm. But it might be more likely that Werenski plays next season and either signs an extension next summer or gets moved again elsewhere, in which case the Leafs could recoup some assets — though not necessarily a player of Knies’ ability (and contract).

And that’s part of the risk: The Leafs would be dealing a long-term asset in Knies, along with their other top goodies, for someone who might only stick around for one or two seasons.

Can the Leafs make a deal like this without knowing for sure whether Werenski is signing an extension? With how much is already on the line next season — the direction of the franchise essentially hanging on Matthews’ desire to stay — I think the answer is almost certainly yes.

The likelihood of a Werenski-to-Toronto blockbuster will ultimately come down to whether Werenski wants to play in Toronto, even for a little while, and whether the Blue Jackets value Knies and all the other goodies the Leafs can offer.

Likely? No.

Possible? Maybe?